US Drought Expands Across Midwest and Plains as Harvest Approaches

12 September 2026, California: More than four fifths of the continental United States is now abnormally dry or in drought, according to data released this week, as a hot, dry pattern spread from the southern Plains into the lower Midwest in the final weeks before this year’s corn and soybean harvest.

The US Drought Monitor, released Thursday and reflecting conditions through the prior Tuesday, showed 81.1 percent of the country in abnormal dryness or drought, up from 79.1 percent the week before. Just under 59 percent of the country is at moderate drought (D1) or worse. The fastest deterioration has been concentrated from Texas northeast through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, with Arkansas now 92 percent covered by moderate or worse drought, Colorado at 88 percent, and Minnesota at 71 percent. Some relief arrived in pockets, with one to three inches of rain in southwest Nebraska and adjacent northeast Colorado, and Tropical Storm Edouard bringing moisture to southeast Texas.

Roughly a quarter of the country’s corn acreage and a similar share of soybean acreage now sit inside drought areas rated D1 or worse, alongside more than half of spring wheat acreage, though all three shares eased slightly from the prior week as some rain moved through parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. On the livestock side, 58 percent of the US cattle herd and 39 percent of dairy cattle are located in drought affected regions, both sharply higher than year ago levels.

A hot, dry finish to the growing season

USDA’s Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, covering the last week of August into early September, described temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from the central Plains into the central Corn Belt, with Iowa running as much as 14 degrees above normal and Kansas and Nebraska up to 16 degrees above normal. Salina, Kansas hit 107 degrees and Wichita reached 106 degrees in late August. Many areas received less than a quarter of their normal weekly rainfall, and topsoil moisture in Texas was rated 89 percent very short to short, with Oklahoma at 88 percent. More than half of the country’s rangeland and pasture is now rated very poor to poor. National drought coverage grew from roughly 46 percent to 59 percent over just six weeks through early September, one of the sharper expansions of the season.

USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending September 6 put corn rated good to excellent at 56 percent, a marked decline from the low 60s in early August and the lowest reading for that point in the season in three years, while soybeans were rated 58 percent good to excellent, also down from prior weeks and from around 65 percent a year earlier. Cotton conditions were flat at 34 percent good to excellent, well below the 54 percent recorded a year ago.

This year’s crop condition slide contributed directly to Friday’s September WASDE report, in which USDA cut its national corn yield estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre, a reduction of 2.2 bushels from August. Speaking before that report’s release, Iowa State University Extension specialist Mark Licht said the cumulative stress of the season was visibly showing up in the crop and that he did not expect USDA’s yield estimate to move higher, only to hold steady or decline further.

Why the timing matters

Drought arriving in the final stretch before harvest is particularly consequential because it affects grain fill, the period when kernels and pods add weight, rather than simply reducing plant stands earlier in the season. That makes the yield impact harder to reverse even if rain returns, and it explains why analysts were closely watching this month’s crop data releases for signs of further deterioration.

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