China’s Soybean Imports Rise as Brazil’s Bumper Harvest Fills the Gap

09 September 2026, Beijing, China: China imported 12.14 million tonnes of soybeans in August 2026, up 5.7 percent from July, according to customs data released this week, as a record Brazilian harvest continued to dominate the world’s largest soybean market. The August figure was down 1.1 percent from the same month a year earlier, but cumulative imports for the first eight months of 2026 reached 74.11 million tonnes, up 1.1 percent from 73.33 million tonnes over the same period in 2025.

The numbers confirm what traders have expected for much of the year: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop, one of its largest on record, has cemented the country’s position as China’s dominant supplier, filling Chinese crushing plants even as questions persist about how much demand remains for US-origin beans heading into the fourth quarter.

Brazil’s harvest sets the pace

Liu Jinlu, an analyst at Guoyuan Futures, said the month-on-month rise in imports and the increase in the January-to-August total were partly driven by Brazil’s bumper 2025/26 harvest and smooth port logistics, which allowed shipments to move efficiently despite the sheer volume flowing out of Brazilian terminals. China’s state-owned buyers have also purchased more than 11 million tonnes of US soybeans this year under trade arrangements negotiated earlier in 2026, but the pace and timing of those purchases have lagged behind the steady flow from South America, reinforcing Brazil’s structural edge as China’s default supplier.

The shift has been building for years, but 2026 has sharpened it. China’s own agriculture ministry has signaled continued strong appetite for soybean imports in its latest rural development blueprint, underscoring that Beijing sees import diversification, rather than a retreat from soybeans altogether, as central to its food security strategy even as it pushes domestic oilseed production through subsidy programs.

A cooling outlook for feed demand

Looking ahead, Liu cautioned that a gradual decline in China’s breeding sow herd is likely to cap growth in pig feed demand during the fourth quarter, which could weigh on soybean meal demand just as import volumes remain elevated. China’s hog sector, the largest consumer of soybean meal domestically, has been trimming herd size after a period of oversupply and weak margins, a trend that could soften import growth even if Brazilian supply remains abundant and competitively priced.

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