Plant Protein Shift Offers UK Retailers Cheapest Route to 2030 Climate Targets, Eunomia Report Finds

A new analysis prepared by UK sustainability consultancy Eunomia for food advocacy group Madre Brava concludes that British supermarkets cannot meet their 2030 climate obligations without rebalancing protein sales toward plant-based sources, and that doing so would deliver a financial benefit rather than a cost burden.

Launched at London Climate Action Week, the study models the three main routes available to UK food retailers for addressing their Scope 3 Forest, Land and Agriculture (FLAG) emissions: shifting the product mix toward plant proteins, cutting food waste across the value chain, and supporting lower-emission farming practices. Nine of the ten largest UK food retailers have committed to Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) FLAG goals, with the sector facing an average reduction of around 30% by 2030 against baseline.

A “medium” shift would deliver strong returns

Eunomia’s modelling estimates that animal proteins, including meat, dairy, fish and eggs, account for approximately 79% of UK food retailers’ Scope 3 FLAG emissions. A “medium” dietary shift, defined as a 35% drop in meat consumption with 50% of protein foods coming from livestock and 32% of dairy from plant sources, would deliver 64% of the required emissions reductions on its own, while increasing retailer profitability through higher margins on alternative products. Combined with food waste reduction in line with the Food and Drink Pact and farm-level efficiency measures, this approach would close all but around 15% of the 2030 gap.

Agricultural improvements alone would deliver just 13% of the FLAG target by 2030 and require an estimated £150 million in capital investment from retailers, the report finds.

Sara Ayech, UK Director at Madre Brava, stated, “Supermarkets have made some inroads on climate, with things like transport and electricity in stores. But when it comes to food, by far the biggest source of emissions, they’re struggling. This new research gives them a cheat sheet on how to hit their climate targets. It will be impossible to do without selling a bigger proportion of healthy protein like beans, pulses, veg and plant-based meat.”

A gap between commitments and current sales

The report draws a stark contrast in retailer performance. Plant-based items account for just 9% of Tesco’s protein-rich food sales and 7% of its dairy sales, despite a commitment to cut FLAG emissions by 39.4% by 2032. According to Madre Brava, the supermarket recently dropped a target to triple plant-based meat alternative sales against a 2018 baseline. By contrast, Lidl GB, which in October 2024 became the first UK retailer to set a quantified plant protein target of 25% of total protein sales by 2030, has since reported a near 700% rise in own-brand meat-free and plant-based milk sales, exceeding its prior 400% goal.

The report recommends five actions for UK retailers: set a protein shift target, improve transparency on protein sales data, advocate collectively for policy reform, support sector-wide food waste initiatives, and deepen supplier partnerships on regenerative agriculture.

Star Molteno, Principal Consultant at Eunomia, explained, “The analysis shows that shifting consumption to lower carbon diets is essential. More interestingly, the research shows this does not imply a cost burden to retailers, but could potentially save money which is vital at a time when cost of living is of utmost concern and supply chains are under pressure.

“While reducing food waste and improving agricultural practices remain important, they won’t be enough on their own to meet short-term targets.”