Fertilizer Costs Stay Elevated as Global Supply Disruptions Persist
19 October 2026, Washington, D.C.: Fertilizer prices in the United States have risen again, with seven of the eight major nutrients now costing more than they did a year ago, according to the latest retail price tracking from data provider DTN, as a months-long disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz continues to work its way through global fertilizer supply chains.
DTN’s retail fertilizer survey, covering the second full week of September and updated in early October, found that six of eight tracked fertilizers were slightly higher than a month earlier: DAP, MAP, potash, the liquid blend 10-34-0, anhydrous ammonia and UAN32. Urea and UAN28 eased slightly over the same period. None of the eight moved by 5 percent or more month on month, suggesting the market has settled into a holding pattern after a volatile first half of the year.
The year-on-year picture is starker. Anhydrous ammonia is up roughly 22 percent to about $945 a ton, the 10-34-0 blend is up 8 percent to $718 a ton, urea is up 6 percent to $659 a ton, MAP is up 5 percent to $967 a ton, DAP is up 2 percent to $925 a ton, and potash is up 2 percent to $495 a ton. Only UAN32, down 3 percent to $458 a ton, is cheaper than a year ago.
Why prices have not fallen back
The underlying driver, according to both DTN’s commentary and the World Bank’s commodity analysis, traces back to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz earlier in 2026, which squeezed exports from a region that supplies close to a quarter of the world’s urea. Iran halted ammonia production, Qatar suspended urea, ammonia and sulphur output after damage to processing facilities, and even India trimmed its own urea output because of reduced natural gas supply. The World Bank’s fertilizer price index rose more than 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026 alone, its sixth increase in seven quarters, and urea prices briefly topped $850 a ton in April, up 80 percent since February. The Bank had projected the overall fertilizer index would rise more than 30 percent across 2026 before easing in 2027, assuming the Strait disruption did not extend much beyond the third quarter.
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By September, US nitrogen prices had corrected down from that spring peak, with urea off about 24 percent and anhydrous ammonia off about 15 percent from their highs, but both remain above 2025 levels. Phosphate has stayed firmer for longer because of a separate constraint: a sulphur shortage affecting phosphate production in Florida, only partly offset by temporary duty-free imports of phosphate from Morocco. Potash has been the most stable of the major nutrients, with Canada remaining the dominant supplier and less exposure to Middle East shipping routes.
These retail costs are feeding directly into farm budgets. The US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service forecasts total 2026 US farm production expenses at $492.8 billion, up 4.5 percent on the year, with spending on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners alone rising 15.3 percent. Combined with softer crop prices, that is expected to push inflation-adjusted net farm income down 5.5 percent for the year.
Also Read: USDA Reports Record Soybean Yield, Bigger Corn Crop in October Forecast
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