India Sets 177.72 Million Tonne Rabi Target as El Niño and Rainfall Risks Persist
30 September 2026, New Delhi: India has set a 177.72 million tonne (MT) foodgrain production target for the Rabi season of 2026-27, with the government factoring in the impact of El Niño concerns, uneven monsoon rainfall and regional water availability.
The overall foodgrain production target for 2026-27 has been fixed at 373.93 MT, compared with 376.56 MT produced in 2025-26. The lower annual target comes as the government prepares for weather-related risks while adjusting crop planning to water availability and soil moisture.
| Period | Foodgrain Production Target | Previous-Year / Reference Production | Change |
| Total 2026-27 | 373.93 MT | 376.56 MT (2025-26) | -2.63 MT |
The impact on Kharif sowing has so far remained limited. According to Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the total Kharif sown area declined by only 1%, broadly remaining close to normal despite uneven rainfall.
Paddy accounted for the largest reduction, with its acreage falling by around 1.63 million hectares. Maize, soybean and cotton also recorded some decline. In contrast, acreage under urad, pearl millet, sorghum, sesame, sunflower and turincreased.
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The government said the current monsoon rainfall deficit stands at 12%, down from 14% earlier following improved rainfall over the past three to four days. A rainfall deficit of more than 19% is considered a serious drought situation under agricultural parameters cited by the minister.
Fertilizer Supply Remains a Key Focus
Fertilizer availability is another major focus ahead of Rabi sowing. States have projected a combined requirement of 38 MT of fertilizer, including DAP, urea and NPK, for the 2026-27 Rabi season.
The country currently holds more than 16.3 MT of fertilizer stock, compared with 12.2 MT at the beginning of the Rabi season last year. The government has said international fertilizer price volatility will not be allowed to create a financial burden for farmers.
‘Save the Farm Campaign’ to Focus on Balanced Fertilizer Use
The government will launch a nationwide ‘Save the Farm Campaign’ from October 22 to November 30, following a pilot programme that reduced fertilizer consumption by 27% and generated savings of more than ₹1,400 crore.
The campaign will promote fertilizer application based on soil requirements, crop selection according to available moisture and water, and the use of improved varieties. ICAR scientists, KVK experts, ATMA teams and state agriculture officials will engage with farmers at the field level.
Rabi Target Reflects Climate and Water Considerations
The 177.72 MT Rabi target has been set after considering reservoir water availability, groundwater levels and soil moisture, according to the minister.
In water-stressed areas, farmers are being encouraged to move away from water-intensive crops towards pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals.
The government is also preparing support measures for drought- and flood-affected areas, including central assessments, short-duration crop seeds and continued efforts to expand crop insurance coverage.
With Kharif acreage showing only a marginal decline, the focus now shifts to how effectively India can manage fertilizer supplies, water availability and crop choices to achieve the Rabi target amid continuing weather uncertainty.
Also Read: Dhanuka Agritech Launches Adjuvant Wetcit Neo and Rice Blast Fungicide Fujita for the Indian Market
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