Brazil has moved closer to potential trade restrictions on food-grade phosphoric acid imports from China, Morocco and Mexico, after the country’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX), under the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, issued Announcement No. 88/2026 on September 11, 2026.
The authority issued an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination covering food-grade phosphoric acid with concentrations above 55 per cent and below 105 per cent. However, it recommended continuing the investigation without imposing provisional anti-dumping measures at this stage. The products covered by the case fall under Mercosur tariff code 2809.20.11.
The decision keeps the immediate trade flow unchanged, but increases uncertainty for exporters as Brazil moves towards a final determination. The final decision deadline has also been extended to within 18 months from the initiation of the investigation.
A Case That Has Already Been Reopened
The current proceedings follow a series of developments stretching back to 2024. Brazil initially launched an anti-dumping investigation on December 18, 2024, following an application submitted by domestic producer ICL Aditivos e Ingredientes Ltda. (ICL) on July 31, 2024.
That investigation examined dumping during April 2023–March 2024 and injury to the domestic industry during April 2019–March 2024. The case was subsequently terminated on June 26, 2025, after an on-site verification found that the domestic industry’s submitted information was insufficient. According to the case record, the deficiencies affected the accuracy and reliability of the application and supplementary information, weakening the evidence supporting the injury allegations.
ICL filed a fresh application on July 30, 2025, leading Brazil to initiate a new investigation on November 21, 2025. The second investigation covers food-grade phosphoric acid with concentrations between 55 per cent and 105 per cent from China, Morocco and Mexico. Its dumping investigation period runs from April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025, while the injury period covers April 2020 to March 2025.
No Provisional Duties—For Now
The September 11 preliminary determination does not introduce provisional anti-dumping duties, meaning imports covered by the investigation are not immediately subject to an additional trade measure on the basis of this ruling. The absence of provisional measures nevertheless leaves exporters facing a potentially more restrictive outcome at the final stage.
Potential Implications for China’s Export Flows
The key market question now shifts from whether the investigation will continue to what duty rates, if any, could emerge from the final determination. If Brazil ultimately introduces anti-dumping measures, Chinese food-grade phosphoric acid exports to the Brazilian market could face greater cost pressure. Depending on the final duty structure and market response, exporters may need to reassess pricing, destination markets and shipment volumes.
A significant reduction in Chinese exports to Brazil could also redirect some volumes towards other markets, including China’s domestic market. Such a shift could add marginal supply pressure domestically and exert a mildly bearish influence on spot prices, although the eventual impact would depend on the scale of redirected volumes and broader phosphate-market fundamentals.
The effect should therefore be viewed as a potential secondary supply-side development rather than an immediate price signal.
Final Ruling Becomes the Market Focus
For phosphate traders, producers and downstream users, the next critical milestones are the final determination, the potential anti-dumping duty rates and the timing of implementation. The preliminary affirmative finding establishes a more uncertain trade environment but does not itself determine the final outcome. Until Brazil concludes the investigation, the precise impact on Chinese exports, competing suppliers and regional phosphoric acid prices remains difficult to quantify.
What is clearer is that Brazil’s latest move has put food-grade phosphoric acid trade under closer scrutiny—and could reshape sourcing economics if definitive measures are ultimately imposed.
