USDA Cuts Corn Yield Forecast, Lifts Soybean Price Outlook in September Report

15 September 2026, Washington, D.C.: The US Department of Agriculture’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on September 11, trimmed its forecast for the 2026 US corn crop while raising expectations for soybean production and prices, a combination that is already rippling through global grain and oilseed markets. The monthly report, prepared by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board using survey and satellite data collected through late August, is the benchmark that traders, importers and exporters worldwide use to gauge how much grain and oilseed the world’s largest agricultural exporter will actually have available.

Corn production was pegged at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million bushels from August, after the agency cut its national yield estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre, a reduction of 2.2 bushels. Harvested area also edged slightly lower. Despite the smaller crop, USDA left its export forecast unchanged at 3.3 billion bushels, which meant ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year were reduced by 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion. The tighter balance sheet pushed USDA’s season-average farm price forecast for corn up 30 cents to 4.80 dollars a bushel.

Soybeans Buck the Trend

Soybeans moved in the opposite direction. USDA raised its production estimate to 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from August, on a slightly higher yield of 52.8 bushels per acre and marginally larger harvested area. Export demand was also revised upward, to 1.69 billion bushels, an increase of 25 million bushels that reflects the recent pickup in Chinese purchasing. Even with the larger crop, ending stocks fell 10 million bushels to 310 million, and the season-average soybean price forecast jumped 60 cents to 12.00 dollars a bushel. Soybean meal prices were raised 30 dollars to 340 dollars a short ton, while soybean oil held steady at 70 cents a pound.

Other crops saw more modest adjustments. Wheat’s overall 2026-27 supply and use balance was left largely unchanged, though USDA shifted its export mix, raising white wheat exports by 20 million bushels while trimming hard red winter and spring wheat exports; the wheat price forecast rose 20 cents to 6.40 dollars a bushel. Rice production was lowered slightly to 158.2 million hundredweight, with long-grain rice down 3.2 million hundredweight, while ending stocks fell 31 percent from a year earlier. Cotton production was cut 3 percent to 13.2 million bales on lower yields, and the 2026-27 price forecast was raised to 78 cents a pound.

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