China’s August Soybean Imports Hold Steady as Brazil Supply Dominates, US Deal Progresses

12 September 2026, Beijing, China: China imported 12.14 million metric tons of soybeans in August, down 1.1 percent from a year earlier but up 5.7 percent from July, as Brazilian supply continued to dominate purchases even as state owned buyers kept working through a separate commitment to buy US soybeans under a bilateral trade agreement.

According to China’s customs data, cumulative soybean imports for the January to August period reached 74.11 million metric tons, up 1.1 percent from the same period last year. Guoyuan Futures agricultural researcher Liu Jinlu attributed the August rise from July largely to Brazil’s large 2025/26 harvest, which Brazil’s national crop agency had earlier estimated at a record near 178 million metric tons. Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence, said Brazil’s dominant position in China’s import mix has persisted through the year, with Brazil supplying close to three quarters of China’s total soybean imports over the past year, up from around 71 percent the year before.

That dominance has not been uniform through the season. Brazilian shipments to China exceeded 10 million tonnes a month in June, July and August, but loadings were running about 2.6 million tonnes below year ago levels through late August as Brazil’s old crop stocks were drawn down ahead of its new harvest. China has supplemented the shortfall with cargoes from Argentina and Uruguay, with Argentine shipments to China up sharply over the past year, aided in part by Argentine export tax cuts that made its beans more price competitive.

US soybean purchases continue under trade deal, tariff still in place

Separately, Chinese state owned traders have purchased roughly 11 million metric tons of US soybeans since a bilateral trade agreement was reaffirmed at a leaders’ meeting in May, part of a broader commitment under which China agreed to buy a minimum of 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028, along with at least 17 billion dollars a year in other US agricultural goods. The commitment traces back to an October 2025 summit between the two countries’ leaders, and China fulfilled its smaller 2025 calendar year commitment of 12 million tonnes in full.

Progress on the larger annual commitment has been gradual. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden has noted that China has the entire marketing period to meet the 25 million tonne target. University of Tennessee agricultural economist Andrew Muhammad said that looking at the accumulated total for the marketing year, exports to China are still running behind pace. A 10 percent Chinese retaliatory tariff on US soybeans, layered on top of the standard import duty, remains in effect as of this week, even though trade officials including US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have signaled expected announcements on agriculture and non tariff barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anticipated visit to the United States this month, with some reports pointing to a possible tariff removal for cargoes arriving after October 1. That removal has not yet been confirmed as executed.

The tariff has kept US soybeans at a persistent price disadvantage against Brazilian and Argentine origins for Chinese buyers, leaving crush margins for China’s private processors under pressure heading into the fourth quarter, according to Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing based AgRadar Consulting. USDA’s own forecast puts China’s 2026/27 soybean imports at 108 million metric tons, a level unchanged from earlier in the year even as the comparison base for the prior year has since been revised higher, suggesting China’s import growth is moderating somewhat as domestic feed millers raise the share of soybean meal in animal feed formulations.

Why this matters beyond China and the US

For Brazilian and Argentine soybean farmers, China’s demand pattern this year has been unambiguously positive. Aprosoja Brasil president Lucas Beber has described China as strategic to Brazil’s soybean industry, and Argentina’s soybean shipments to China rose sharply over the past year, helped by both its own tax cuts and the tariff driven disadvantage facing US exporters. That dynamic is likely to persist as long as the Chinese tariff on US soybeans remains active, reinforcing South America’s position as China’s preferred supplier even as US exporters work through their bilateral purchase commitments.

For India, which imports roughly 60 percent of its edible oil needs, the interplay between Chinese demand, Brazilian supply timing and the unresolved US-China tariff situation matters directly. Strong Chinese demand pulling on Brazilian and Argentine supply, combined with tight old crop stocks in Brazil heading into the fourth quarter, tends to support global soybean and soy oil prices, a cost that eventually flows through to India’s import bill. Indian edible oil buyers, along with fertilizer and seed companies watching global oilseed economics, have reason to track both the pace of Chinese purchases from the US and the timing of any tariff change closely over the coming weeks.

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