Scotland Could Prevent 60,000 Diabetes Cases Through Targeted Red Meat Cuts, Study Shows（农业百科官网）

A new modelling study published in Nature Food finds that reducing red meat intake among the heaviest consumers, rather than applying blanket cuts across the population, delivers the strongest combined health and environmental returns for Scotland.

Researchers from the University of Edinburgh and collaborating institutions built a microsimulation using dietary data from 3,447 adults in the 2021 Scottish Health Survey. They tested 33 different ways Scotland could meet the UK Climate Change Committee’s goal of cutting meat and dairy consumption by 20% by 2030, rising to 35% for meat by 2050.

Targeting heavy meat eaters works better than cutting for everyone

The most effective approach identified in the study capped red and processed meat at 31 grams a day for high consumers, alongside a 20% cut to dairy overall, with no need to replace either. Modelled over a decade, this pathway was projected to prevent close to 60,000 cases of type 2 diabetes, roughly a quarter of Scotland’s annual cases, plus meaningful drops in cardiovascular disease and early death.

Scotland Could Prevent 60,000 Diabetes Cases Through Targeted Red Meat Cuts, Study Shows — Image: Jack Sparrow on Pexels

This targeted approach also beat a flat, population-wide cut of the same size when it came to greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use and eutrophication, according to the paper. And it did not cost people more. The study found diet costs fell across nearly every scenario tested, with the top-performing pathway saving around 40 pence per person per day. Savings were similar regardless of income level.

The nutrient gap that substitutions could not fully close

Swapping meat and dairy gram for gram with foods like vegetables, pulses and plant-based alternatives helped offset losses in protein, calcium and other nutrients. Iodine was the exception. Around half the plant-based milk used in the model was oat-based, and oat milk does not naturally contain much iodine, so this substitution did not fully make up for the drop in dairy. The researchers suggested fortification could help close that gap.

The study also found that emissions linked to what Scottish adults actually eat, including imported food, are higher than the emissions produced by Scotland’s own farming sector, largely due to reliance on imported pork, chicken, white fish and out-of-season produce.

The researchers concluded that making plant-based substitutes cheaper and easier to access, combined with a focus on high red meat consumers, would help Scotland move faster toward both its climate goals and its Good Food Nation targets.

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Targeting heavy meat eaters works better than cutting for everyone

The nutrient gap that substitutions could not fully close

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